Column: Market review

Long-term market trends Abstract As we are approaching ten years since the global financial crash of 2008, sufficient time has lapsed for a perspective on...

bySteve AUBERTIN


Long-term market trends

Abstract

As we are approaching ten years since the global financial crash of 2008, sufficient time has lapsed for a perspective on how this affected the market in years to follow. During the period 1990 to 2002, global GDP increased at a CAGR of 3.62 % whilst during that same period the global transformer market was lagging behind with an increase at 0.59 %. This situation changed dramatically between 2002 and 2008, when the global economy experienced a period of growth averaging 10.62 % CAGR, while transformer markets exceeded all expectations achieving a growth rate of 18.37 % CAGR. Following the 2008/2009 “correction”, global GDP has recovered substantially with a growth of 2.94 % CAGR between 2009 and 2017, whilst transformer markets have virtually flat-lined at 0.94 % CAGR over the same period. What can be learned from this with a view to predicting the future? This contribution is exploring an answer to this question.

Keywords: GDP, CAGR, market, steel

 

  1. Introduction

We are approaching 10 years since the global financial crash of 2008 which is perhaps sufficient lapsed time for a perspective to be reached. In 2008, the world economy faced the worst crisis since the great depression of the 1930s. The events which began in 2007 as a “correction” in the property sector in the United States of America quickly spread throughout the entire U.S. financial sector and then virtually globally. So, a crisis which started in the U.S. financial sector quickly spread to affect the wider business, manufacturing and consumer sectors throughout the world. By the end of 2007, not only the U.S. but many other countries, especially in Europe, were also technically in recession. Parts of Asia, South America and the Federal Soviet Union (FSU) were not directly affected, but nevertheless became victims of the global downturn in investment and demand that followed.

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